Fig 1: A cartoon revealing the struggle between the East and West in Ukraine[1]
There was a saying that weak nations had no diplomatic preference. Same theories applied in Ukraine. To examine the causes of the Ukraine conflict, we had to inevitably consider the global geopolitical climate, with regard to the strategic positioning of Ukraine.
Strategic importance of Ukraine to Russia, European Union and USA
Ukraine had always been a major route linking up Russia and to another part of Europe, thus it had great strategical importance in big power politics.
Fig 2: a map showing Russian pipeline passing through Ukraine to Russia[2]
Important pipelines connecting East and West
Firstly, nearly all major oil and gas pipelines, routes from West Siberian gas fields to Western European markets, passed through Ukraine, currently more than 70% of Russia gas enters Europe through Ukraine.[10] In Putin administration, emphasizes are made in putting Russia into a major energy producer. The European reliance on Russian natural gas and oil had always been the important card of the Kremlin, in counterbalancing the Western influence in the region. In fact, as happened in 2005-6,[11] Russia had used the disruption in supplying gas and oil in their political bargaining. If European power sough to control Ukraine, the Kremlin would no longer have an upper hand in negotiation, which would seriously undermine the "energy diplomat" of Putin.
Economically significance
Besides the extensive pipelines across country, Ukraine was also significant in her population. Currently its population of more than 44.6 million is one of the biggest in Europe and an important source market for both EU and Russian made goods.[11] Ukraine is also important for the Russia as it had always been an important heavy industrial base of the former Soviet Union. Ukraine is a major manufacturer of ballistic missiles, large transport planes and launch pads for space carriers.[11] It exported armament parts to Russia and Russian defense industry would be seriously undermined if Ukraine lost to the hand of Western nations. Shipping, aeronautics, and automotive industries richly developed in Soviet era were also inherited by Ukraine, for Russia who is now eager to regain the power and status of Soviet Union, the heavy industrial base in Ukraine would be essential.
Rich in resources and fertile in soil
Although typically known as the industrial base of the former Soviet Union, Ukraine is also a major agricultural hub. Its flat plains, plateaus and fertile black soil (considered the best in Europe) are good for food production and animal husbandry.[11] It would also be expected as an important exporter of grain.[3] In fact the country could be the breadbasket of Europe if its agricultural potential is fully exploited.[11] The fertile country also famous for its iron mining and steel production. Ukraine had been responsible for 50% of the Soviet Union iron ore production and 40% of Manganese production. Donets Basin in Ukraine was also rich in coals. Ukraine is also one of the few in the world which could produce nuclear fuels. [12]
There was a saying that weak nations had no diplomatic preference. Same theories applied in Ukraine. To examine the causes of the Ukraine conflict, we had to inevitably consider the global geopolitical climate, with regard to the strategic positioning of Ukraine.
Strategic importance of Ukraine to Russia, European Union and USA
Ukraine had always been a major route linking up Russia and to another part of Europe, thus it had great strategical importance in big power politics.
Fig 2: a map showing Russian pipeline passing through Ukraine to Russia[2]
Important pipelines connecting East and West
Firstly, nearly all major oil and gas pipelines, routes from West Siberian gas fields to Western European markets, passed through Ukraine, currently more than 70% of Russia gas enters Europe through Ukraine.[10] In Putin administration, emphasizes are made in putting Russia into a major energy producer. The European reliance on Russian natural gas and oil had always been the important card of the Kremlin, in counterbalancing the Western influence in the region. In fact, as happened in 2005-6,[11] Russia had used the disruption in supplying gas and oil in their political bargaining. If European power sough to control Ukraine, the Kremlin would no longer have an upper hand in negotiation, which would seriously undermine the "energy diplomat" of Putin.
Economically significance
Besides the extensive pipelines across country, Ukraine was also significant in her population. Currently its population of more than 44.6 million is one of the biggest in Europe and an important source market for both EU and Russian made goods.[11] Ukraine is also important for the Russia as it had always been an important heavy industrial base of the former Soviet Union. Ukraine is a major manufacturer of ballistic missiles, large transport planes and launch pads for space carriers.[11] It exported armament parts to Russia and Russian defense industry would be seriously undermined if Ukraine lost to the hand of Western nations. Shipping, aeronautics, and automotive industries richly developed in Soviet era were also inherited by Ukraine, for Russia who is now eager to regain the power and status of Soviet Union, the heavy industrial base in Ukraine would be essential.
Rich in resources and fertile in soil
Although typically known as the industrial base of the former Soviet Union, Ukraine is also a major agricultural hub. Its flat plains, plateaus and fertile black soil (considered the best in Europe) are good for food production and animal husbandry.[11] It would also be expected as an important exporter of grain.[3] In fact the country could be the breadbasket of Europe if its agricultural potential is fully exploited.[11] The fertile country also famous for its iron mining and steel production. Ukraine had been responsible for 50% of the Soviet Union iron ore production and 40% of Manganese production. Donets Basin in Ukraine was also rich in coals. Ukraine is also one of the few in the world which could produce nuclear fuels. [12]
Fig 3:Map with red line showing the East-West border, with Ukraine joining EU, the frontier would be much closer to Russia[4]
Doorstep to Russia
Ukraine shares 1,576km long border with Russia in the east making her a strategic country.[11] For Russia, Ukraine was believed to be the doorstep to Russia In the history, nearly all invaders from the West, namely Napoleon and Hitler, attacked Russia via Ukraine. The Eastern Ukraine was also a deep enclave into the heart of Russia. If Ukraine becomes a member of the EU, or even NATO, the west country's frontier will as close as 520km from Moscow, 422km from Volgograd.[5] Therefore, it is in the interest of Russia to keep Ukraine under her influence and made her a buffer zone, in providing a strategic buffer to counter the East spread of NATO.[5]
Fig 4:Graph showing increase EU influence in original Soviet states[6]
Struggle for the influence in Eastern and Central Europe
Ukraine also borders the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, Belarus, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova. This prime location could allow the country to play major role in Eastern and Central Europe.[11] For the EU, the joining of Ukraine could increase her influence into the central region of Eastern Europe, or even extend her influence into the Caucasian region. For the Russia, Ukraine would be an important stepstone for them to extend her sphere of influence back to the Central and Eastern Europe, meanwhile keeping the Western hand out of Eastern Europe, Black Sea and Caucasian.
Doorstep to Russia
Ukraine shares 1,576km long border with Russia in the east making her a strategic country.[11] For Russia, Ukraine was believed to be the doorstep to Russia In the history, nearly all invaders from the West, namely Napoleon and Hitler, attacked Russia via Ukraine. The Eastern Ukraine was also a deep enclave into the heart of Russia. If Ukraine becomes a member of the EU, or even NATO, the west country's frontier will as close as 520km from Moscow, 422km from Volgograd.[5] Therefore, it is in the interest of Russia to keep Ukraine under her influence and made her a buffer zone, in providing a strategic buffer to counter the East spread of NATO.[5]
Fig 4:Graph showing increase EU influence in original Soviet states[6]
Struggle for the influence in Eastern and Central Europe
Ukraine also borders the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, Belarus, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova. This prime location could allow the country to play major role in Eastern and Central Europe.[11] For the EU, the joining of Ukraine could increase her influence into the central region of Eastern Europe, or even extend her influence into the Caucasian region. For the Russia, Ukraine would be an important stepstone for them to extend her sphere of influence back to the Central and Eastern Europe, meanwhile keeping the Western hand out of Eastern Europe, Black Sea and Caucasian.
Fig 5:Important sea route of transportation in Black Sea[7]
Black Sea Policy
Ukraine was also important as it had a long coastline with the Black Sea. Ukrainian coastal city of Sevastopol located on the Crimean peninsula serves as a major naval base and headquarters for the Russian navy.[11] If Ukraine was lost, Russian would be denied from entering Black Sea, which was a crucial part of Russian core interest since the Russo-Turkish War. Both US and EU were eager to expand their sphere of influence into the Black Sea, which was dominated by Russia for a century. As a US state department article had pointed out,
"The Black Sea lies at a strategic crossroads of geography and culture, where Russia intersects with the European Union, where energy producers of Eurasia connect to energy consumers of central and Western Europe, ...The Black Sea region is of considerable strategic importance to the United States. We now have three NATO Allies bordering the Black Sea: Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. Two European Union members are Black Sea littoral states. The Black Sea region is a crossroads in high level policy debates over energy security, with planned routes to bring central Asian gas to Europe." [8]
Meanwhile, EU had pushed forward the Black Sea Synergy (BSS) Scheme since 2007, to increase the cooperation of EU with countries around the Black Sea, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine,[9] which are believed to be countries traditionally influenced by Russia. Russia would then be more suspicious of the situation in Ukraine, to prevent herself from loosing the control of the Black Sea, an important route for the oil pipeline after the fall of Ukraine.
Black Sea Policy
Ukraine was also important as it had a long coastline with the Black Sea. Ukrainian coastal city of Sevastopol located on the Crimean peninsula serves as a major naval base and headquarters for the Russian navy.[11] If Ukraine was lost, Russian would be denied from entering Black Sea, which was a crucial part of Russian core interest since the Russo-Turkish War. Both US and EU were eager to expand their sphere of influence into the Black Sea, which was dominated by Russia for a century. As a US state department article had pointed out,
"The Black Sea lies at a strategic crossroads of geography and culture, where Russia intersects with the European Union, where energy producers of Eurasia connect to energy consumers of central and Western Europe, ...The Black Sea region is of considerable strategic importance to the United States. We now have three NATO Allies bordering the Black Sea: Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. Two European Union members are Black Sea littoral states. The Black Sea region is a crossroads in high level policy debates over energy security, with planned routes to bring central Asian gas to Europe." [8]
Meanwhile, EU had pushed forward the Black Sea Synergy (BSS) Scheme since 2007, to increase the cooperation of EU with countries around the Black Sea, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine,[9] which are believed to be countries traditionally influenced by Russia. Russia would then be more suspicious of the situation in Ukraine, to prevent herself from loosing the control of the Black Sea, an important route for the oil pipeline after the fall of Ukraine.
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[1] http://latuffcartoons.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/ukraine.gif?w=716
[2] http://latuffcartoons.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/ukraine.gif?w=716
[3] Iurii Mykhailov, "Ukraine Grain Exports To Rise". Accessed on 17 November, 2014. https://word.office.live.com/wv/WordView.aspx?FBsrc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fdownload%2Ffile_preview.php%3Fid%3D894278967257541%26time%3D1416221036%26metadata&access_token=1315315496%3AAVKe3qiCPUSWzAdFa8ZGMwWzbWnScSoZBlOtaYr0CwZMhg&title=Part+3+ideology+cause-nationalism.docx
[4] http://www.motherjones.com/files/blog_eu_ukraine_map.jpg
[5] George Friedman, "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century", (USA: Anchor,2010) p 167-190
[6] Stephen White and Valetina Feklyunia, "Identities and Foreign Policies in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus: The other Europe", (England: Palgrave Macmillan, 2014) p 1944
[7]http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KITRkogKQmg/UOmRfKGsaFI/AAAAAAAAAdQ/7NlfZL9FVso/s1600/black+sea.gif
[8] Judy Garber, "U.S. Perspectives on the Black Sea Region". US Department of State. 10 June 2008. Accessed on 17 November, 2014. http://2001-2009.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/105827.htm
[9] "The EU Black Sea Synergy: Results and Possible Way Forward". European Parliament. September 2010. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.
http://www.iris-france.org/docs/kfm_docs/docs/observatoire-voisinage-europeen/bl-sea-1010-way-forward-final-published.pdf
[10] Lord Aikins Adusei, "The Strategic importance of Ukraine and why both Russia and U.S. want her as an ally". Accessed on 17 November,
http://www.modernghana.com/news/526204/50/the-strategic-importance-of-ukraine-and-why-both-r.html
[11] .Ibid
[12] USGS tables accompanying The Mineral Industry of Ukraine 2007 (MS Excel). 2007 Mineral Yearbook. United States Geological survey.. Accessed on 17 November,
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/country/2007/myb3-2007-up.xls