There are three reasons for the strategic and geopolitical reasons stand out from the historical reasons and identity policy, in explaining the root of Ukraine conflict.
Fig 6:NATO satellite photos showing Russian armor column passed the border and entering into Ukraine[1]
For a start, we could see extensive foreign intervention and supports, provided to opposing parties which also fuel the contemporary conflicts.
Russian denied any involvement in the Ukrain civil war, however, numerous evidence had shown the active involvement of Russian. The only admitted Russian military action, was the occupation of Crimea, which had laid down the Crimean status referendum. Extrinsic evidence had shown that the pro-Russian separatists received weapons directly from Russia,[2] as the border between Eastern Ukraine and Russia was controlled by the separatists and armored vehicles were often spotted transporting man and arms from Russia to Ukraine.[3] Sophisticated armories were used by the separatists, including the BUK surface-to-air missile, which believed to shoot down the Malaysian airliner.[3] Western country claimed that those weapons were controlled by Russian forces.[4] While the Kremlin denied any official operation in Ukraine, the speaker of Russia's parliament acknowledged that Russian soldiers entered Ukraine, but have referred to them as "volunteers".[4] There were also Russian paratroopers captured by the Ukraine, far away from the border, supporting the direct Russian involvement.[5]
Fig 7: John Kerry, US Secretary of States visited the Kiev Square and showed his support.[6]
To be fair, the West was also believed to play an important part in the Euromaidan demonstration in Kiev, which overthrew the pro-Russian government eventually. The EU Commission and the United States[7] had officially showed their support to the Euromaidan demonstration and publicly exerted pressure to the Yanukovych's administration. There were also report of Western mercenaries, from Black Water Company[8] and those of European countries[9] engaged in the Kiev demonstration and fighting in Eastern Ukraine respectively. United State's secretary Victoria Nuland, who had visited the Kiev Maidan, also had her call intercepted by Russian, showing the direct involvement of Western countries in choosing the future leader of Ukraine.[10]The support from the West doesn't come only physical, CIA director John Brennan visited Kiev and opened the intelligence resources to Ukraine leader, in replace for the old system which believed to be infiltrated by the Russian.[11]US also sent frigate USS Taylor into Black Sea, with addition 600 troops deploy to Poland in support for the Ukraine.[12]
The provision of armaments, volunteers and diplomatic support of the West and Russia, to Kiev and separatists respectively, intensify and prolong the armed conflicts. Although it was the historical hatred and the clashes of identities that lead to the conflict, if there were no foreign support in the 2014 Revolution and the unrest of Eastern Ukraine respectively, the situation would not be uncontrollable. It could even end peacefully, like after the Orange Revolution of similar situations except for less foreign involvement.
The second reason would be the diplomatic policy had pre-dominated both Kiev and separatists, which made the conflicts in Ukraine become a proxy war. Western countries openly supported the Euromaidans from the very first beginning, and after the overthrowing of Yanukovych, most of the Western countries recognized the new Kiev government legitimacy. Western governments were also supportive of Poroshenko military operations in the East, under the title of anti-terrorism.[13]
The Eastern Ukrainian separatists were also accused of Russian proxy, as the prime ministers of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk are all official Russian citizens.[13] The intercepted call from US also revealed that the insurgents fighting in Donbass, are directly under Russian coordination and command.[13]
When the great powers were getting involved in the Ukrain conflict, and the conflict became proxy war, the conflicts proved difficult to resolve as the Ukranian could not determine their futures. For the major powers, they concern only their interests in Ukrain but not the interests of the Ukranian. The powers would be less eager to take initiatives to stop the conflicts if their interests were not satisfied.
So why couldn't there be any peaceful resolution drafted by major power to end the bloodshed in Ukraine? That comes to the third reason: the global political climate.
As former leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev warned, the world was on the brink of a neo-Cold War.[14] Some even tend to believe the neo-Cold War had already started between the Western world and the Sino-Russian coalition.
There were strong sense of suspicious between Russia and the West. From the United States, as stated by Zbigniew Brzezinski, “America’s capacity to exercise global primacy” depends on whether America can prevent “the emergence of a dominant and antagonistic Eurasian power.”[15] Russia and China were considered the major challenge of United States global supremacy. Brzezinski emphasized the role of Ukraine in containing the emergence of Russian-lead Eurasian empire:
"Even without the Baltic states and Poland, a Russia that retained
control over Ukraine could still seek to be the leader of an assertive Eurasian empire…. But without Ukraine and its 52 million fellow Slavs, any attempt by Moscow to rebuild the Eurasian empire was likely to leave Russia entangled alone in protracted conflicts with the nationally and religiously aroused non-Slavs, the war with Chechnya perhaps simply being the first example.”[16]
To pull Ukraine into the Western bloc, to some observers, would even foster the dissolution of Russia, which fit American's interests in preventing an Eurasian empire to emerge, as Peter Schwarz wrote in his article published in global research:
“It would not take a war to greatly damage Russian interests, simply a change in Ukraine’s geopolitical orientation. A Westernised Ukraine would not so much be a dagger poised at the heart of Russia as it would be a jackhammer in constant operation,” [17]
In the view of Russia, in particular, from the view of Putin, a stronger Russia, comparable to the Soviet Era would best fit Russian interests. After the dissolution of Soviet Union, the influence of Russia in Balkan and in the Middle East was lost after US war in Iraq and Serbia respectively. In the Eastern and Central Europe, former Russian allies, such as Bulgaria and Romania had joined the NATO.[18] After the Baltic States joined NATO, Russian core interests and national security were seriously under threat. To counter the east spread of NATO, and a possible war with the Western coalition, the "only physical advantages of Russia is depth. The farther west into Europe its borders extend, the farther conquerors have to travel to reach Moscow. "[18] Therefore, Russia could not make concession in Ukraine problem as it would leave an open door on the Southern border of Russia.
Much more is that, to achieve Putin goals in bringing back a strong Russia in twenty years, Ukraine would be a key ingredient. As supported by Alexander Dugin, Russian has proposed an Eurasian Union to counter balance the ever expanding European Union and American influence in the region. Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) signed in October 2014, would be a start.[19] However, the absence of Ukraine in the Eurasian Union would have a serious undermining effect, as stated by Lord Aikins Adusei: " Ukraine membership to the EAU would have given the union the boost it needed. However with Ukraine now tilting towards EU, the EAU would definitely struggle to remain as buoyant as it should. "[19]
Besides Russia and America, the EU also had her own concern. Peter Schwatz had a clear insight:
"If one considers the fact that the European Union receives nearly 20 percent of its oil and 44 percent of its gas imports from Russia, with 80 percent of these products passing through Ukrainian pipelines, then the significance of the balance of power in Ukraine for the economic future of Europe becomes clear. As is well known, conflicts over the mineral ore reserves of Lorraine and the coal of the Ruhr district contributed largely to the outbreak of the First World War. The situation with regard to international energy and transport routes is just as explosive today."[20]
Therefore, as the Ukrain conflicting parties were predominated by the control of great power, yet the great power involved had competing interests with nearly no common ground: with US preserving her global dominance, with Russia rebuilding her sphere of influence, with European Union concerning the economic future...the original confrontation between Russian and Ukranian identities, with struggle of resources and history of hatred were no longer been able to explian the complexity, brought by the clahses of interests between major powers.
Thus, it is believed that, the strategical and geopolitical struggle between major powers, which fuel and prolong the conflict in one hand, and making the situation more complicated in the other hand, would be the best answer to the cause of Ukraine Civil War.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1]http://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/r/2014/08/28/087f87a7-6c18-466e-ad3f-46a9847604cd/thumbnail/620x350/b72195caf6ea593e044599f473717c76/2014-08-28t142549z757367669gm1ea8s1q6s01rtrmadp3ukraine-crisis-nato.jpg
[2]Thomas Grove and Warren Strobel, " Special Report: Where Ukraine's separatists get their weapons". Thomson Reuters. 29 July, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/29/us-ukraine-crisis-arms-specialreport-idUSKBN0FY0UA20140729
[3]Michael Weiss, "Putin Is Just Getting Started in Ukraine". The Daily Beast Company LLC. 19 June, 2014. Accessed on 17 November. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/06/19/russia-is-still-meddling-in-ukraine-and-it-s-getting-worse.html
[4]Martin Morgan, " Russian TV lauds 'volunteers' fighting in Ukraine". BBC News. 5 September, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29078465
[5]"Captured Russian troops 'in Ukraine by accident'". BBC News. 26 August, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28934213
[6] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_Euromaidan#mediaviewer/File:U.S._Secretary_of_State_John_Kerry_places_roses_atop_the_Shrine_of_the_Fallen_in_Kyiv,_Ukraine,_on_March_4,_2014..jpg
[7] " Kerry’s Statement on Ukraine". The New York Times. 10 December, 2013. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/11/world/europe/kerrys-statement-on-ukraine.html?_r=1&
[8] Ulson Gunner, "Western Mercenaries in Ukraine?". Global Research. 12 May, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.http://www.globalresearch.ca/western-mercenaries-in-ukraine/5374815
[9] "‘United Continent’: European volunteers fighting Kiev troops in Eastern Ukraine". RT's News. 6 September, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014. http://rt.com/news/183864-ukraine-european-volunteers-fighting/
[10] "Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call". BBC News. 7 February, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
[11] Melik Kaylan, " Why CIA Director Brennan Visited Kiev: In Ukraine The Covert War Has Begun". Forbes. 16 April, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.http://www.forbes.com/sites/melikkaylan/2014/04/16/why-cia-director-brennan-visited-kiev-in-ukraine-the-covert-war-has-begun/
[12] Tony Cartalucci. "US in Kiev to Support Nazi Puppets While Resistance to Coup Regime Gathers Momentum". Libya360. 23 April, 2014. Accessed on 17 November,
http://libya360.wordpress.com/2014/04/23/west-visits-newly-installed-regime-in-kiev/
[13] Josh Rogin and Eli Lake, "Kerry: U.S. Taped Moscow’s Calls to Its Ukraine Spies". The Daily Beast Company LLC. 29 April, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/29/kerry-u-s-taped-moscow-s-calls-to-its-ukraine-spies.html
[14] DS Wright, " Gorbachev Warns Of US ‘Triumphalism’ And ‘New Cold War’ At 25th Anniversary Of Fall Of Soviet Union". FDL. 10 November, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.
http://news.firedoglake.com/2014/11/10/gorbachev-warns-of-us-triumphalism-and-new-cold-war-at-25th-anniversary-of-fall-of-soviet-union/
[15]Zbigniew Brzezinski, "The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy And Its Geostrategic Imperatives"(Untied States: Basic Books, 1997) p xii
[16] .Ibid p 122
[17] Paul Schwarz," History: The Power Struggle in Ukraine and America’s Strategy for Global Supremacy". Global Research. 15 May, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/history-the-power-struggle-in-ukraine-and-americas-strategy-for-global-supremacy/5382379
[18] George Freidman, "Ukraine and the 'Little Cold War'". Geopolitical Weekly. 4 March, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/ukraine-and-little-cold-war#axzz3JKrT0YLs
[19] Lord Aikins Adusei, "The Strategic importance of Ukraine and why both Russia and U.S. want her as an ally". Modern Chana. 28 February, 2014. Accessed on 17 November,
http://www.modernghana.com/news/526204/50/the-strategic-importance-of-ukraine-and-why-both-r.html
[20] Paul Schwarz, see n 2 above.
To be fair, the West was also believed to play an important part in the Euromaidan demonstration in Kiev, which overthrew the pro-Russian government eventually. The EU Commission and the United States[7] had officially showed their support to the Euromaidan demonstration and publicly exerted pressure to the Yanukovych's administration. There were also report of Western mercenaries, from Black Water Company[8] and those of European countries[9] engaged in the Kiev demonstration and fighting in Eastern Ukraine respectively. United State's secretary Victoria Nuland, who had visited the Kiev Maidan, also had her call intercepted by Russian, showing the direct involvement of Western countries in choosing the future leader of Ukraine.[10]The support from the West doesn't come only physical, CIA director John Brennan visited Kiev and opened the intelligence resources to Ukraine leader, in replace for the old system which believed to be infiltrated by the Russian.[11]US also sent frigate USS Taylor into Black Sea, with addition 600 troops deploy to Poland in support for the Ukraine.[12]
The provision of armaments, volunteers and diplomatic support of the West and Russia, to Kiev and separatists respectively, intensify and prolong the armed conflicts. Although it was the historical hatred and the clashes of identities that lead to the conflict, if there were no foreign support in the 2014 Revolution and the unrest of Eastern Ukraine respectively, the situation would not be uncontrollable. It could even end peacefully, like after the Orange Revolution of similar situations except for less foreign involvement.
The second reason would be the diplomatic policy had pre-dominated both Kiev and separatists, which made the conflicts in Ukraine become a proxy war. Western countries openly supported the Euromaidans from the very first beginning, and after the overthrowing of Yanukovych, most of the Western countries recognized the new Kiev government legitimacy. Western governments were also supportive of Poroshenko military operations in the East, under the title of anti-terrorism.[13]
The Eastern Ukrainian separatists were also accused of Russian proxy, as the prime ministers of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk are all official Russian citizens.[13] The intercepted call from US also revealed that the insurgents fighting in Donbass, are directly under Russian coordination and command.[13]
When the great powers were getting involved in the Ukrain conflict, and the conflict became proxy war, the conflicts proved difficult to resolve as the Ukranian could not determine their futures. For the major powers, they concern only their interests in Ukrain but not the interests of the Ukranian. The powers would be less eager to take initiatives to stop the conflicts if their interests were not satisfied.
So why couldn't there be any peaceful resolution drafted by major power to end the bloodshed in Ukraine? That comes to the third reason: the global political climate.
As former leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev warned, the world was on the brink of a neo-Cold War.[14] Some even tend to believe the neo-Cold War had already started between the Western world and the Sino-Russian coalition.
There were strong sense of suspicious between Russia and the West. From the United States, as stated by Zbigniew Brzezinski, “America’s capacity to exercise global primacy” depends on whether America can prevent “the emergence of a dominant and antagonistic Eurasian power.”[15] Russia and China were considered the major challenge of United States global supremacy. Brzezinski emphasized the role of Ukraine in containing the emergence of Russian-lead Eurasian empire:
"Even without the Baltic states and Poland, a Russia that retained
control over Ukraine could still seek to be the leader of an assertive Eurasian empire…. But without Ukraine and its 52 million fellow Slavs, any attempt by Moscow to rebuild the Eurasian empire was likely to leave Russia entangled alone in protracted conflicts with the nationally and religiously aroused non-Slavs, the war with Chechnya perhaps simply being the first example.”[16]
To pull Ukraine into the Western bloc, to some observers, would even foster the dissolution of Russia, which fit American's interests in preventing an Eurasian empire to emerge, as Peter Schwarz wrote in his article published in global research:
“It would not take a war to greatly damage Russian interests, simply a change in Ukraine’s geopolitical orientation. A Westernised Ukraine would not so much be a dagger poised at the heart of Russia as it would be a jackhammer in constant operation,” [17]
In the view of Russia, in particular, from the view of Putin, a stronger Russia, comparable to the Soviet Era would best fit Russian interests. After the dissolution of Soviet Union, the influence of Russia in Balkan and in the Middle East was lost after US war in Iraq and Serbia respectively. In the Eastern and Central Europe, former Russian allies, such as Bulgaria and Romania had joined the NATO.[18] After the Baltic States joined NATO, Russian core interests and national security were seriously under threat. To counter the east spread of NATO, and a possible war with the Western coalition, the "only physical advantages of Russia is depth. The farther west into Europe its borders extend, the farther conquerors have to travel to reach Moscow. "[18] Therefore, Russia could not make concession in Ukraine problem as it would leave an open door on the Southern border of Russia.
Much more is that, to achieve Putin goals in bringing back a strong Russia in twenty years, Ukraine would be a key ingredient. As supported by Alexander Dugin, Russian has proposed an Eurasian Union to counter balance the ever expanding European Union and American influence in the region. Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) signed in October 2014, would be a start.[19] However, the absence of Ukraine in the Eurasian Union would have a serious undermining effect, as stated by Lord Aikins Adusei: " Ukraine membership to the EAU would have given the union the boost it needed. However with Ukraine now tilting towards EU, the EAU would definitely struggle to remain as buoyant as it should. "[19]
Besides Russia and America, the EU also had her own concern. Peter Schwatz had a clear insight:
"If one considers the fact that the European Union receives nearly 20 percent of its oil and 44 percent of its gas imports from Russia, with 80 percent of these products passing through Ukrainian pipelines, then the significance of the balance of power in Ukraine for the economic future of Europe becomes clear. As is well known, conflicts over the mineral ore reserves of Lorraine and the coal of the Ruhr district contributed largely to the outbreak of the First World War. The situation with regard to international energy and transport routes is just as explosive today."[20]
Therefore, as the Ukrain conflicting parties were predominated by the control of great power, yet the great power involved had competing interests with nearly no common ground: with US preserving her global dominance, with Russia rebuilding her sphere of influence, with European Union concerning the economic future...the original confrontation between Russian and Ukranian identities, with struggle of resources and history of hatred were no longer been able to explian the complexity, brought by the clahses of interests between major powers.
Thus, it is believed that, the strategical and geopolitical struggle between major powers, which fuel and prolong the conflict in one hand, and making the situation more complicated in the other hand, would be the best answer to the cause of Ukraine Civil War.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1]http://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/r/2014/08/28/087f87a7-6c18-466e-ad3f-46a9847604cd/thumbnail/620x350/b72195caf6ea593e044599f473717c76/2014-08-28t142549z757367669gm1ea8s1q6s01rtrmadp3ukraine-crisis-nato.jpg
[2]Thomas Grove and Warren Strobel, " Special Report: Where Ukraine's separatists get their weapons". Thomson Reuters. 29 July, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/29/us-ukraine-crisis-arms-specialreport-idUSKBN0FY0UA20140729
[3]Michael Weiss, "Putin Is Just Getting Started in Ukraine". The Daily Beast Company LLC. 19 June, 2014. Accessed on 17 November. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/06/19/russia-is-still-meddling-in-ukraine-and-it-s-getting-worse.html
[4]Martin Morgan, " Russian TV lauds 'volunteers' fighting in Ukraine". BBC News. 5 September, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29078465
[5]"Captured Russian troops 'in Ukraine by accident'". BBC News. 26 August, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28934213
[6] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reactions_to_the_Euromaidan#mediaviewer/File:U.S._Secretary_of_State_John_Kerry_places_roses_atop_the_Shrine_of_the_Fallen_in_Kyiv,_Ukraine,_on_March_4,_2014..jpg
[7] " Kerry’s Statement on Ukraine". The New York Times. 10 December, 2013. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/11/world/europe/kerrys-statement-on-ukraine.html?_r=1&
[8] Ulson Gunner, "Western Mercenaries in Ukraine?". Global Research. 12 May, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.http://www.globalresearch.ca/western-mercenaries-in-ukraine/5374815
[9] "‘United Continent’: European volunteers fighting Kiev troops in Eastern Ukraine". RT's News. 6 September, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014. http://rt.com/news/183864-ukraine-european-volunteers-fighting/
[10] "Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call". BBC News. 7 February, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
[11] Melik Kaylan, " Why CIA Director Brennan Visited Kiev: In Ukraine The Covert War Has Begun". Forbes. 16 April, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.http://www.forbes.com/sites/melikkaylan/2014/04/16/why-cia-director-brennan-visited-kiev-in-ukraine-the-covert-war-has-begun/
[12] Tony Cartalucci. "US in Kiev to Support Nazi Puppets While Resistance to Coup Regime Gathers Momentum". Libya360. 23 April, 2014. Accessed on 17 November,
http://libya360.wordpress.com/2014/04/23/west-visits-newly-installed-regime-in-kiev/
[13] Josh Rogin and Eli Lake, "Kerry: U.S. Taped Moscow’s Calls to Its Ukraine Spies". The Daily Beast Company LLC. 29 April, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/29/kerry-u-s-taped-moscow-s-calls-to-its-ukraine-spies.html
[14] DS Wright, " Gorbachev Warns Of US ‘Triumphalism’ And ‘New Cold War’ At 25th Anniversary Of Fall Of Soviet Union". FDL. 10 November, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.
http://news.firedoglake.com/2014/11/10/gorbachev-warns-of-us-triumphalism-and-new-cold-war-at-25th-anniversary-of-fall-of-soviet-union/
[15]Zbigniew Brzezinski, "The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy And Its Geostrategic Imperatives"(Untied States: Basic Books, 1997) p xii
[16] .Ibid p 122
[17] Paul Schwarz," History: The Power Struggle in Ukraine and America’s Strategy for Global Supremacy". Global Research. 15 May, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/history-the-power-struggle-in-ukraine-and-americas-strategy-for-global-supremacy/5382379
[18] George Freidman, "Ukraine and the 'Little Cold War'". Geopolitical Weekly. 4 March, 2014. Accessed on 17 November, 2014.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/ukraine-and-little-cold-war#axzz3JKrT0YLs
[19] Lord Aikins Adusei, "The Strategic importance of Ukraine and why both Russia and U.S. want her as an ally". Modern Chana. 28 February, 2014. Accessed on 17 November,
http://www.modernghana.com/news/526204/50/the-strategic-importance-of-ukraine-and-why-both-r.html
[20] Paul Schwarz, see n 2 above.